Current technology is not the future

One thing that we can say for sure is that the current generation of clean energy technology is not the answer for the future.

Coal is the cheapest but is on the nose with the general public. Clean coal isn’t making it yet.

Gas, coal seam gas and shale gas are abundant energy sources and may be more efficient sources of energy in that less CO2 is emitted for each unit of electricity than coal. But it is still doesn’t provide a major reduction in CO2 given that the population is growing to 9 billion over the next 30-40 years.

Wind is reasonably cost effective, but it has limited application and is facing growing resistance.

Hydroelectric power could provide baseload power generation but is limited to suitable locations and depends on long term rain patterns. Many groups are opposed to new dams so it is hard to expand this to the scale required.

Solar holds a lot of promise and technology is improving. It is still not suitable to mass baseload power and won’t be until the costs drop dramatically, including the costs of augmenting the distribution network and storage.  Also, ideas  of connecting up countries on an east west alignment with a supergrid are destined to stay in the realm of science fiction due to the costs of building a transmission grid.

Nuclear power is a possibility for a transition – but it’s going to be very hard to get public acceptance and political buy in after Fukushima.

Cost effective geothermal remains a dream. Technology may solve some of the problems, but the technology is a ways off yet.

Wave and tidal power are on their way – but aren’t getting the funding they need to go the next step.

Fusion isn’t here yet, and may be a generation or two away.

So here we are in 2011 putting in carbon pricing in the hope that it will lead to a great future.  The idea seems good, but it won’t even support wind – which is the largest scale renewable energy source.

In other words, the answer hasn’t been invented yet. It may be a laboratory somewhere, it may be a result of 20 years of future effort, but it isn’t here.

Given some of the technologies I am seeing in the startup space I have no doubt that we will get there ( I just can’t tell you about them for legal reasons – but I am excited).

The only problem for all these new technologies is that private sector funds have all but disappeared, venture capitalists and angel investors are focussed on 5 year returns, large companies know that carbon pricing won’t support new technology costs and governments spend more time and effort worrying about education and then will only back commercial scale demonstrations of technologies which are by definition not the answer.

Hey government, what about dropping a few billion on fundamental research at universities and at government agencies. How about you create some excitement with invention and manufacturing of new technologies. How about you provide seed funding for all sorts of loopy ideas that could end up being the answer.

If this is the challenge of the generation start acting like it.

Note: I work as a project and energy economist with companies and governments on geosequestration,wind, geothermal, hydro, wave, transmission networks, coal seam gas, coal,and more. The views expressed in this blog are solely my own and do not represent the views of any organisation that I do work for.